Bitcoin's Unprecedented Decoupling: A Quantum Enigma?
In a surprising turn of events, Bitcoin has broken free from its historical correlation with global liquidity, as highlighted by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. This development has sparked intense debate among analysts and investors alike.
Bitcoin's Divergence from Global Liquidity
Edwards, in a recent post, drew attention to Bitcoin's decoupling from global liquidity flows. The chart he presented compares Bitcoin's year-over-year (YoY) percentage change with that of the global M2 supply. As the graph illustrates, while the world's major economies experienced growth in their money supply, Bitcoin's YoY change remained stagnant in 2025, indicating a clear divergence.
Historically, Bitcoin's YoY percentage change has mirrored the global M2 supply trend. However, this is the first time Bitcoin has shown such independence, according to Edwards.
The Quantum Threat: A Potential Catalyst?
So, what could be behind this new trend? Edwards attributes it to the looming threat of quantum computing. Quantum computers are theorized to possess the ability to crack Bitcoin's cryptography, with wallets from the blockchain's early days being particularly vulnerable. While the timeline for a quantum breakthrough remains uncertain, Edwards believes Bitcoin has entered a "Quantum Event Horizon" in 2025.
"The timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin's cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin," Edwards explained. In theory, a party with advanced quantum capabilities could infiltrate old, dormant wallets and flood the market with coins. This scenario could not only impact Bitcoin's price directly but also erode trust in the cryptocurrency as a whole.
Market Response and Investor Perspectives
"Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly," Edwards added. However, not everyone agrees with his quantum timeline assessment. Some investors suggest that the market's decoupling is not solely driven by this view, which is not widely shared.
Edwards responded, "If you listen to the Bitcoin maximalists on X, you might think so. But if you speak to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs who have been in the space for 7+ years in private, they are all considering this risk."
Other Market Developments
In other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been facing weak demand recently, as indicated by data from SoSoValue. Last week saw an exit of $681 million from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. While the new week has started with inflows, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue.
BTC Price Update
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $92,100, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
