Can the Mets or Braves Dethrone the Dodgers? Analyzing the NL's Top Contenders (2026)

Could any team in the National League overthrow the mighty Dodgers? The answer is yes—if the stars align and a few key factors fall into place. But here’s where it gets controversial... Let’s explore the possible contenders and what makes them viable challengers to the reigning NL champions.

In the current MLB landscape, every team in the National League is eyeing the Dodgers, especially as postseason time approaches. The path to the World Series often seems to run straight through Chavez Ravine, making the Dodgers not just a team but nearly a roadblock for others aiming for glory. Yet, they aren’t the only team with legitimate aspirations, and this offseason has seen several NL clubs make moves that could elevate them to that elite status.

1. New York Mets

Some might object that I place the Mets at the top of this list after they disappointingly missed the postseason last year. However, it’s crucial to recognize that their failure was largely an underperformance from a deeply talented roster. Since then, the Mets have restructured roughly 30% of their lineup, reshaping their core to once again feature some of the league’s most talented players.

This offseason in Queens was notable for some bold strategic gambles, particularly on defense. The Mets have invested in high-risk, high-reward moves by adding Bo Bichette at third base and Jorge Polanco at first, aiming to strengthen their infield and overall defensive metrics. They also let Edwin Díaz leave for the Dodgers—a move that’s still under assessment to determine if trusting advanced metrics over proven performance was the right call. Their roster does carry injury concerns, yet the club’s strength up the middle, which was a glaring weakness last year, has been addressed. Now, they boast Francisco Lindor at shortstop, Marcus Semien at second base, and Luis Robert Jr. in the centerfield—an offensive and defensive upgrade.

Their rotation has also improved, with Freddy Peralta, who is in a contract year, leading the pack, supported by a full season from young talent Nolan McLean. The big question remains: will this revamped roster gel cohesively and build chemistry fast enough? While nobody can guarantee it, FanGraphs projects the Mets have the third-highest WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among NL teams, trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees. Despite fan frustrations over offseason departures, their talent pool is formidable enough to contend deeply and pose a significant challenge to Los Angeles if postseason matchups occur.

2. Atlanta Braves

Here’s where opinions might stir debate—some might even consider ranking the Braves higher in the mix. Yet, despite a challenging 2025 season plagued by injuries, I still see the Braves as strong contenders due to their talent and depth.

Their struggles were evident: key pitchers like Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach faced long stints on the IL, Reynaldo López suffered a shoulder injury after just one start, and Spencer Strider struggled upon returning from Tommy John surgery. In the lineup, Austin Riley battled injuries all season, and even before Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from knee surgery, the team was already lagging behind.

However, the outlook is promising. With Sale in a contract year, Strider further removed from his surgery, López returning to health, and prospects like Hurston Waldrep impressing early, the rotation could be revitalized. The Braves also bolstered their bullpen with signings like Robert Suárez and Raisel Iglesias, aiming for stability at the back end of games. Moreover, a full season of Acuña—who’s a game-changer—could make a crucial difference.

All of these factors position Atlanta as a prime candidate for a strong bounceback, especially if their stars stay healthy and deliver consistent performances.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies could very well be ranked first or second here—many would argue they deserve that spot. My placement here, however, stems from a somewhat underwhelming offseason, combined with some unresolved questions.

The Phillies' challenge is not just about talent but about health and consistency. Their recent October performances have been somewhat flat, and with aging stars and rotation uncertainties, it's hard to feel completely confident. Zack Wheeler’s recovery from thoracic outlet decompression surgery remains a key unknown—will he return to his elite form by October? Similarly, the potential impact of top prospect Andrew Painter filling the void in the rotation depends on his development.

Both the team and its front office are aware of this—nothing to belabor, but the aging of key players (average age over 30) does raise concerns about durability and sustained performance. LA tends to escape such discussions more often due to their recent championship success, whereas Philadelphia, despite their talent, needs to prove they can elevate their game.

Nevertheless, expect the Phillies to contend and be among the NL’s top teams—they have the firepower and experience to give the Dodgers a run in a short series.

4. Chicago Cubs

Interestingly, despite not making massive efforts to retain Tucker, the Cubs have assembled a roster that—on paper—looks competitive, with an expected 92-win season from 2025. This team seems to be stabilizing into a perennial playoff contender. The key to challenging the Dodgers might be whether they continue to invest in their big-market potential, especially midseason, to address weaknesses.

5. Milwaukee Brewers

In a bit of an underrated move, I place the Brewers below the Cubs because their ceiling, projected through current data, appears slightly lower. Still, Milwaukee’s 97-win record last year set a high bar, and although their season ended quickly in a sweep by the Dodgers, their pitching staff remains formidable.

Yes, their lack of offensive punch was evident in the postseason, but with acquisitions like Angel Zerpa and prospects such as Brandon Sproat, they could boost their offensive firepower. Developing players like Jackson Chourio might also contribute, but they may need to add proven bats like Eugenio Suárez for a true shot at dethroning LA.

6. NL West Contenders (Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants)

External to the top contenders, these teams are often underestimated, but they have postseason capabilities as wild cards. The Padres have a history of challenging the Dodgers—though recent injuries and departures, including Dylan Cease and Robert Suárez, could hinder their push.
The Giants, while not flashy, added Rafael Devers and other depth pieces, and with a full season from him and prospects like Bryce Eldridge, they might be better than expected. The Diamondbacks have underperformed but could strike in October—if they simply get there—especially with pitchers like Corbin Burnes potentially back from surgery and maintaining their key players, such as Ketel Marte.

7. The Rest of the Field

Last year, the Dodgers managed to barely scrape into the playoffs, thanks to their depth and talent. This opened the door for lower-seeded teams—like the Reds or perhaps the Pirates—to make unexpected runs. Don’t underestimate the power of a team that catches fire at the right moment. Sometimes, an underdog rise can destabilize the favorite, creating a wild, unpredictable postseason.

Maybe it will be a team like the Pirates sneaking in again, facing a Dodgers squad that’s vulnerable. Or perhaps a team with rising stars and a hot streak could surprise everyone—remember, in baseball, anything is possible. So, let’s keep an eye on those fringe contenders, because in October, anything can happen—and the biggest story might just come from the least expected team.

Can the Mets or Braves Dethrone the Dodgers? Analyzing the NL's Top Contenders (2026)
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