War Lessons for a Europe Left Behind: The Uselessness of Tanks Without Air Superiority
The U.S. Secretary of Defense, a role President Trump prefers to call the 'Secretary of War', has informed European nations that they must take on the 'bulk of NATO's conventional defense capabilities' on their soil starting in 2027. This shift, outlined in the new National Security Strategy, aims to 'reestablish strategic stability with Russia'. The announcement has sent shockwaves through Europe, which has long relied on U.S. military support.
The tension between Russia and Europe is palpable, with President Putin warning in December that Russia is prepared for conflict if Europe initiates it. Military experts on both sides agree that neither Europe, without U.S. support, nor Russia, are currently equipped to win a hypothetical conflict.
This realization is forcing Europe to reflect on the lessons of the most significant conflict on its soil since World War II. The key takeaway is that air superiority is crucial for deterring the enemy. Without air power, tanks are vulnerable to drone attacks.
Since Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the nature of war has changed dramatically. Tanks are now rarely seen on the front lines, replaced by drones targeting motorcycles and bicycles. The Russian T-14 Armata was never deployed, and Western tanks like the Leopard and M1 Abrams arrived late and in limited numbers.
Military experts from Russia and NATO question the wisdom of investing billions in tanks defenseless against drones, which are hundreds of times cheaper. Russian military Telegram channels often post videos of armored columns being destroyed in seemingly futile attacks. In October, a Russian battalion of 22 tanks and armored transports was decimated by Ukrainian drones and guided artillery in a single month.
Today, troops are dispersed in small groups along the front, with the real rearguard positioned 30 miles back. This new dynamic creates a 'kill zone' where enemy drones stalk everything that moves, including civilians, military personnel, and press vehicles. The front line itself is a horror zone, littered with mines, corpses, and wounded soldiers.
Experts like Yuri Baluyevsky and Ruslan Pukhov warn that the full digitalization of the battlefield, combined with artificial intelligence, will create 'strike and defensive systems with colossal density and effectiveness' against massed military forces. The goal is to detect and suppress enemy fire in minutes, then bombard them. The fastest side wins.
Pujov emphasizes that sending waves of men against the enemy is futile. Drones and drone-guided artillery make force buildup impossible. The Ukrainian and Russian militaries rely on commercial Starlink satellites and cell phone SIM cards for drone connectivity, but experts warn that this won't be enough in a future war.
Despite this, Russia plans to double its T-90M tank production and modernize 1,118 tanks between 2027 and 2029. The U.S. has unveiled the M1E3, a new variant of the M1 Abrams for a drone-saturated environment. Europe has announced Project MARTE, its new main battle tank.
However, the race is in the sky. The U.S. has over 7,800 commercial Starlink satellites, compared to Europe's 650 and Russia's 292 expected by 2030. William Courtney, a research associate at the Rand Center, notes that Ukraine has much to teach its allies about countermeasures against drones.
Admiral Garat disagrees with Pujov and the former Russian chief of staff, arguing that the war in Ukraine demonstrates the necessity of tanks for ground mobility. NATO is focusing on protecting armored vehicles from artillery and low-cost drones, not abandoning them.
Pujov admits that a powerful air force could significantly impact the war, but only the U.S. currently possesses such an air force. Europe cannot assert air superiority alone without U.S. support.
The Israeli and U.S. bombings of Iran demonstrate that air defense systems can still be overcome. Israeli doctrine prioritizes air superiority for continued bombing, while Russia subordinates its air force to ground army support. Israeli intelligence was crucial in locating and neutralizing Iran's air defenses during the initial strikes.
Shapiro urges NATO to learn from Israel's success in facing the possibility of a Russian military campaign against its eastern flank.
